Comprehensive view of ecological degradation drivers, thresholds, and future trajectory post-2000 shift.
Critical Finding:
Abruin's ecosystem has undergone a fundamental, irreversible regime shift from a moisture-limited savanna to a **heat-limited semi-desert** system.
The New Reality: Heat stress (LST/VPD) is now the dominant driver of degradation, not rainfall variability.
1984-1999: Recoverable Savanna
Elastic system with full bounce-back capacity.
2000: MAJOR REGIME SHIFT
VHI, Soil Moisture, LST collapse. Shift to heat-limited system.
2016-2025: Irreversible Degradation Pathway
Accelerated decline trajectory toward semi-desert state.
Key Finding:
VHI is primarily a **HEAT-STRESS index** (-0.857 correlation with LST), not a moisture index.
Impact:
Cluster 0 "Extreme Crisis" events (10% of months) cause **80% of long-term degradation damage.**
Zai Pits, Contour Bunding. (Target: PC1 Moisture Engine)
Agroforestry, Shade Trees. (Target: PC2 Silent Killer)
ACTION URGENCY: IMMEDIATE
Old Paradigm (Pre-2000): Rainfall was the primary constraint.
New Paradigm (Post-2000): Heat stress is the dominant degradation driver.
Vegetation collapse occurs only when multiple critical thresholds are breached simultaneously:
Crisis Years: 1999-2000, 2015-2016, 2021-2022